Why People Come
The claim
"People crossing the Channel are bogus 'economic migrants,' not genuine refugees."
The headline facts
- Around 60% of small-boat asylum claims (2018–2025) were granted protection at initial decision — higher than the overall asylum grant rate
- The top nationalities come from war zones and repression: Eritrea, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Sudan
- The system does say no: Albanians, Vietnamese and Indians have much lower grant rates
Graphic idea: donut chart — "~60% of small-boat claims are granted." Replace with your finished graphic.
The full picture
The data shows most small-boat arrivals are genuine refugees. Excluding withdrawals and administrative decisions, around 62% of all initial decisions on asylum applications from people who arrived by small boat — a total of 69,000 decisions — were grants of protection. This is higher than the overall asylum grant rate of 52% for the same 2018–2025 period. GOV.UK March 2026 statistics confirm a cumulative grant rate of around 60% for all small-boat arrivals with a decision.
The top nationalities arriving in 2025 were Eritrea (top, with more than twice as many arrivals as 2024), Afghanistan (second), and others including Iran, Syria and Sudan — all countries with well-documented records of persecution, conflict and human rights abuses.
Graphic idea: world map showing the conflict zones the top nationalities flee. Replace with your finished graphic.
Grant rates vary sharply by nationality — showing the system does distinguish genuine cases from others:
Eritreans: 86% granted. Afghans: 34% (down from 99% in 2023 after rules tightened following the Taliban takeover). Syrians arriving in 2025: just 7% (down from 99% for those arriving in 2022, reflecting changed conditions on the ground). The idea that "they let everyone in" is not supported by the data.
Graphic idea: "The system DOES say no" panel — grant rates from 86% (Eritrea) to 7% (Syria 2025 arrivals). Replace with your finished graphic.