The Economy
The claim
"Migrants are a drain on the public purse and take jobs from British workers."
The headline facts
- The OBR finds higher net migration lowers the deficit and debt, because migrants tend to be of working age
- In one scenario, borrowing was estimated to be £19.9 billion lower and debt 3.1% of GDP lower with higher migration
Graphic idea: a "scales" graphic — taxes paid vs services used, tipping toward contribution. Replace with your finished graphic.
The full picture
The Office for Budget Responsibility — the government's own independent fiscal watchdog — has "generally estimated that higher net migration leads to lower deficits and debt, because migrants tend to be of working age."
In its March 2024 analysis, the OBR estimated that annual net migration around 200,000 higher than the ONS projection would lower debt as a proportion of GDP by 3.1 percentage points — with borrowing estimated to be £19.9 billion lower. That is not a drain; that is a contribution.
Graphic idea: a bold statement card — "The OBR says more migration = lower government debt." Replace with your finished graphic.
The Migration Observatory notes the fiscal impact varies by immigration route — working-age, higher-earning migrants contribute most — and that recently arrived migrants tend to have a more positive fiscal impact than those who have lived in the UK longer, because they are typically younger and in employment.
On jobs: the labour market is not a fixed pie. Migrants create demand for goods and services as well as filling vacancies. The evidence does not support the claim that migration causes unemployment among British workers.
Graphic idea: age-pyramid comparison showing migrants are disproportionately working-age. Replace with your finished graphic.